The 2008 Crisis is Happening NOW (And It's 10x Scarier)

HOST 1: Tell me if this sounds familiar. You go out, you have drinks with a friend. They've been at the same company for several years. They're miserable. They hate their boss. There's no growth opportunity. And you ask them why they don't leave, and they just look at you like, what do you mean? In this economy? Are you crazy? Why would I leave?

Sadly, that person's not alone. There are a lot of people stuck in a job they hate. And the government just admitted they had overestimated the number of jobs created by almost a million. 911,000. Nearly a million jobs that didn't actually exist that the government said existed.

So here's the question. When did we go from the Great Resignation, that we were talking about a couple of weeks ago, to a situation where nobody wants to quit? Everyone is scared to leave because there are no jobs. I don't understand how we go from the Great Resignation to whatever the hell this is.

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[SEGMENT 2 — THE BIG WHY]

HOST 2: I think it's interesting. This is the dark void at a massive scale. When uncertainty meets scarcity, humans naturally cling to what they have, even if it makes them miserable. When the future is blurry, we'd rather jump onto the little asteroid and be miserable in the cold, dark vacuum of space than continue on the journey to where a better, inhabitable planet may be.

So I do think it's absolutely astonishing that we were doing Great Resignation podcasts six months ago. Was it even six months ago? I feel like it was less than that. We've had several along those lines, but I think it started roughly six months ago. And here we are, going into just yesterday, which was the beginning of Q4 officially, talking about how people are clinging onto their jobs as opposed to resigning.

s the longest it's been since: 2016

HOST 2: Yes.

shift in the job market since: 2008

What was happening in: 2008

:: 2008

financial services during the: 2008

HOST 1: Well, I think that's exactly what it was. There was so much uncertainty in the direction. The housing market crashed. Banks were being consolidated. It was all uncertainty.

The biggest power shift since: 2008

the biggest power shift since: 2008

: So you just said: 2021

s, we're kind of back to that: 2016

What happened in two years?

HOST 1: Actually, let's take that one for a second. There were two seats per person because we were hiring in the US. And now there's less than one seat per person because we're hiring more people globally.

know how to do this from the: 1950

I don't think organizations have the capability to adapt to where the capabilities exist. Because if you're a large organization, if you're a Fortune 500 company, and you're still thinking about hiring locally, I think you're screwed. I think you're not thinking about this correctly. You need to broaden your aperture and think about the fact that certain skills are geographically agnostic. If I can find somebody who can do the job, I don't care what time zone they're in. I don't care what language they speak. If they can do the job, give them the job. Even if they are six hours plus or minus and they work in Angola, give them the job, because you might not be able to find somebody in your time zone who can do it as effectively. And I don't think most organizations have caught up to that level of thinking.

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[SEGMENT 3 — BY THE NUMBERS]

HOST 1: Well, here's a crazy one on the employer side. We've switched from the employee market. For the past two years it's been the employees in control of everything. Now we're back to the employer in control.

Here's a Fed report. Job stayers are getting 4.1% in raises, while job switchers are only getting a 4% increase in pay. That's never happened outside of a recession. We're seeing compensation patterns that historically have only happened during economic disaster.

Are we at the cusp of economic disaster? Is this a slow boil the frog with what we've been building up to — inflation going up, cost of living going up? And to your point about outsourcing jobs to other parts of the world, you're more likely to get a raise with your miserable job today than getting a better raise switching. Because that used to be the whole thing. This is where it's been the employee market: if you're not going to give me a $10,000 raise, I'll go to this other company because they'll pay it. Versus now, you're really just switching for switching's sake.

HOST 2: And that's been my advice to people who are career switchers or people wanting to advance in their careers. It's like, look, if you stay at the same company more than two or three years, you're giving up a lot of financial benefit. But that's a crazy statistic, that job stayers are getting 4.1 and job switchers are getting 4.0. That's bonkers. That is completely upside down from what I've seen for the last 20 to 30 years.

And so I think that is probably driven by the fact that AI and other technological advancements are really redefining the employment landscape and creating a lot of chaos for job seekers. Because sure, you can say "F you" to your boss, but can you get a job that pays as much? Maybe you could get a job that pays more, but gosh, you're rolling the dice on that. And that's not a gamble you want to take if you've got a secure paycheck.

HOST 1: Well, here's another take on this, and it's a dangerous cycle. This is where I think the results-driven individuals, especially results-driven leaders who are just looking for profits and more revenue, are taking advantage of this. There's a psychological impact that creates a feedback loop. Fear keeps people in place, which gives companies more power, which creates worse working conditions, which creates more fear. So at what point are these companies taking advantage of the situation and creating a more toxic culture for their organization?

HOST 2: I think companies that lean into that might see short-term profits, but like we talked about in previous episodes, there's going to be a reawakening. The pendulum always swings back and forth. I think if you're a company that's creating a stable culture, you're addressing the fears of society, you're working together, you're using AI — this is a great opportunity for a company to use AI.

HOST 1: What percentage of people, if this scenario is true, would take the same pay at your current company? Let's assume the culture's fine. Let's say it's not toxic. Would you take the same pay if AI was introduced in a way that allowed you to not work as much? If you're working 50, 60 hours now and you got down to 40 hours, or if you're at 45, 50 hours and you're down to 35, 40 hours — would you keep the same pay if you had more personal time back? Yes or no?

HOST 2: I think most people would say yes. 80% of people would say yes. 20% of people would say yes, but what's the long-term effect? Because if this is good for me for a couple of years, but then I'm screwed and I have no job in three to five years, then no thanks.

HOST 1: Well, I think if you can — now, you've got to do something with that time. I'm not saying this job gives you more time to go get a second job to pay your bills. That's a different problem. If it gives you time to get certifications or learn advanced career skills or expand your skill portfolio, as we talked about in a previous episode.

HOST 2: Or start an OnlyFans page.

HOST 1: No. Not so much.

HOST 2: I guess to each their own. My wife tells me that's not going to really be a moneymaker for me. I'm not going there. All right, keep going.

HOST 1: But what I'm saying with this is, there is an opportunity for companies that want to do right by their people and not be part of the problem. I think they'll be few and far between, but if you actually believe in making work not suck, there is a way you can weather this as an employer for the betterment of your team.

And I would also challenge — I know this is easier said than done on the employee side — there has always been opportunity. Like we talked about in the previous episode, there are 170 million new jobs being created with AI, even though 70-something million are being destroyed. The economy overall is growing. There will always be jobs available. I think what we have to do is not let the fear consume us. Don't freeze from fear. I'm totally butchering this. You're good with these quotes and analogies. What am I trying to say?

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[SEGMENT 4 — SPICY TAKES]

HOST 2: I don't know if this is the word you're looking for, but I've heard this phrase, job hugging. Rather than job hopping and continuing to look for new opportunities every six to nine months, job hugging is just holding on to what you have for dear life, like it is your life raft.

I think each generation responds to job hugging in a different way, and it's really based on their economic experience. Whatever you've lived through in your professional life determines how you respond to uncertainty in the job market. If you grew up in a season where there was plenty of opportunity, you're probably okay with uncertainty, because you believe good opportunities are right around the corner. If you grew up in a season where good opportunities were hard to find, you're probably more likely to stick with a crappy job because you're scared of the uncertainty. So whatever's happening today is probably interpreted in very different ways depending on your professional experience.

HOST 1: I agree with that. Each generation is going to have a different response to job hugging, shaped by their former economic experiences. If you lived through your twenties a certain way, that determines how you're going to react to uncertain times in your thirties and forties.

Let's think about a boomer. If you're a boomer right now, you're close to retirement, you're probably thinking, I'll just ride the storm out.

HOST 2: You've got another couple good years in you, and if you can just get a couple of cost of living raises and a few things here and there, why shift? I know a couple of boomer business owners who are like, I'm just hoping to ride this off into the sunset. If I can keep this going for another three to five years, I'm good. Why rock the boat? And I don't think that's a good decision, but I understand from their perspective why they think that's a viable strategy.

ot-com bust, they've seen the: 2008

generation. Per the Deloitte: 2025

So I think Gen X and millennials are both in that place where we need the income, we have obligations, we want to job hop, we want to get better, but the obligations are holding us there. So Gen X and millennials are probably the most impacted by this.

And then you get to Gen Z. Probably an unpopular opinion, but most Gen Z I know want to climb that corporate ladder faster than anybody else has. I've experienced many of them at the age of 25, 26, 27, 28 wanting paychecks like they've been in the business for 25 years. Director titles, higher titles with higher pay, with only five years of experience.

So I think a lot of the friction there is — 39% of them fear AI will affect their pay, the highest of any generation. They're still averaging 1.1 year tenure despite the fear. 75% of them are using AI skills to upskill, versus only 49% of boomers. And they're trying to outrun automation while facing the worst entry-level market in decades.

HOST 2: Yeah, and I think I see this in Gen Alpha as well, especially the older Gen Alphas that are starting to enter the workforce. They don't want to do the entry-level job. They want to go straight to expert mode.

HOST 1: Straight to management.

HOST 2: Straight to management, straight to being the awesome. And I think that comes down to a competitive nature that's just in their makeup. Some of it even comes from video games. Video games train them to climb the level, to level up, to grind through the game. So they're trying to grind through the game of life. And it's like, it's not a video game, guys.

HOST 1: "I level up every five minutes. Why do I have to wait a year for a promotion?"

HOST 2: Yeah, that's kind of not how that works.

HOST 1: So across the generations with this job hugging — boomers probably not caring as much because they're on the way out. Gen Z: I've got a long career ahead of me, I'll just bounce around. And you've got Gen X and millennials sandwiched in the middle, where they need the security because they're taking care of aging parents and families.

And it's interesting, because boomers are basically immune. They're the closest to retirement and have the most leverage, but I still don't see them letting go. They're the ones currently with the highest paid jobs. They're the ones with all the back knowledge and skills. They're the ones with the books of business. If you're in a sales role, especially a relationship role, your boomer probably has the best book of business compared to your Gen Z sales rep.

Statistics say, and the reports say, that Gen Xers are doing what they always do — keeping their heads down and surviving. What do you think? Are the Gen Xers just keeping their heads down and surviving?

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[SEGMENT 5 — WORK RECEIPT]

HOST 2: I had lunch today with a baby boomer business owner who more or less admitted to me that hope was his strategy. He has no real plan for how the business is going to grow. He's just hoping good things are going to happen. He has no leader in place. He's going to spend less time at the business. He's buying a house in another state. He's going to spend less time at his business and hoping the results are going to stay either on par or slightly better.

And it was just fascinating. I was asking him, can you tell me about a situation where you have seen a business with less attention get better? And he couldn't give me an example of it. But he's got a Gen X child who he's hoping will at some point buy the business from him. He's a mid-to-upper-aged boomer. The business is throwing off enough cash that it is creating a comfortable lifestyle for him. He's not in a crisis. So he's just kind of riding it out.

I don't think his Gen X son is going to buy the business, because he wants a valuation that's not in line with reality. But his son is just grinding through, trying to add value. So I think there's a massive disconnect between where the boomers are with their financial situation and where their next-generation owners are. At some point there's going to be a reckoning, but it doesn't look like it's happening today.

HOST 1: So I got one for you. Is the real generational divide age, or is it who has leverage and who doesn't?

HOST 2: It's an interesting question. I don't think it's one-dimensional — leverage versus not leverage. I think it's two-dimensional. I think there's perceived leverage and real leverage.

The guy I'm talking about has perceived leverage. He thinks his business is going to continue to operate the way it has. I don't think that's true. I think there are massive technological shifts coming for his business that are going to make him irrelevant in the next three-ish years. So he thinks he has leverage financially, because as of today he does. But over the near term, he is very overconfident in what this business is actually going to produce.

And so it ends up being somewhat of a two-by-two matrix. He's very confident, but he shouldn't be, versus people who are confident and should be because they are well positioned. He is confident but not well positioned, and he's going to get his butt kicked. Versus people who are ill prepared and know it and are making changes accordingly.

I think that complexity is catching a lot of boomers off guard. Or it hasn't caught them off guard yet, but it's going to, because they think they're well positioned since they're financially leveraged. But they're not strategically leveraged. Does that make sense?

HOST 1: Yes.

HOST 2: He's like, we're making tons of money. I'm like, yes, and you will — until you don't. And you've got very little notice from when you will to when you won't. You're not using modern technology. You're not using modern digital marketing. You're not using AI. You're not using any of the tools that are defining the winners in your industry over the next five years. And because you're not doing those things, you're going to be fine until the day you're not. And on that day, it will be impossible for you to recover.

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[SEGMENT 6 — SPICY TAKES, PART TWO]

HOST 1: Are workers being smart by job hugging, or are they giving up power they still have?

HOST 2: That's a hard one to say on a macro level.

HOST 1: Let's add some rationale behind it. 911,000 phantom jobs means the market is objectively terrible. AI is eliminating job roles faster than they're created. And for the first time in 14 years, staying pays the same as leaving. Better to have a job you hate than no job at all. So are they being smart, or are they giving up power they still have?

HOST 2: I think most of them are being smart. I think 80% of them are being smart. 20% of them are giving up power they already have. I think the innovators, the people who are willing to go the extra mile — there are opportunities available for them if they're willing to take the risk. But it's hard to know whether or not you're that 20% or you're that 80%.

HOST 1: I think you're giving up power. And I agree with you, and I think —

HOST 2: Okay, why?

HOST 1: Overblown. Unemployment is still under 4.5%. There are still jobs out there. If you're giving up power, it's going to make the conditions worse for everyone. So I think it can still be an employee market, unless the fear grabs everybody.

You know the one — you put 100 people in jail cells and everybody has the button, and if nobody pushes the button, then everybody gets out in 24 hours. But if one person pushes the button, they get out then and everybody else is stuck for life. I forget the analogy.

HOST 2: Yeah, it's called the prisoner's dilemma in game theory.

HOST 1: The prisoner's dilemma. Thank you. I think that's a little bit what this is, and job hugging is pushing the button. But can you fault them for it? Again, I go back to unemployment still being under 4.5%. There's still a job market out there.

HOST 2: I think this is where we get a divide. I think the best workers can still move. If you're a solid individual who brings a lot of strategy or execution or capability or knowledge to a role, I think you are still able to move, and you can still move up. I think mediocre workers are the ones that are stuck.

It's funny you would say that, because I remember earlier in my career working for a Fortune 500 organization, and I remember what my paycheck was. And I remember thinking, if I quit, the person they would have to hire to do all the things that I'm doing would cost significantly more than what they're paying me. Probably 10 to 20% more.

I remember being really frustrated with that, because I went to my boss and said, I think you should pay me X because market rate is X. And they said, yeah, we can't do that. We're going to give you a 3% raise. And I said, 3% doesn't get me anywhere near what I think my market value is. And I went and talked to recruiters and I interviewed for other jobs, and they were like, yeah, that's what you're worth, and you're being paid significantly less — like 10% less than what you're worth.

If you're one of those people, and you feel like the value you're adding to your organization is more than 10% above what they're paying you, you should go find another job, because there are people who are looking for people like you. However, if you're just thankful for the paycheck and you're not looking for any more work and you're just wanting to ride it out until you get your retirement package, stay where you are.

I do think it's a very different market for that top 10 to 20, maybe 25%. I think it's very competitive. And if you believe you belong in that group, you should go compete for those jobs, because there is a very competitive market to hire the top 20 to 25% of employees. But if you don't think you're one of those, stay where you are, because it is very easy to try to make that jump and land in the gap in between.

HOST 1: I agree with what you're saying, but I think we're probably speaking to the minority and not the majority.

HOST 2: Okay.

HOST 1: Spicy take, uncomfortable truth. Job hugging is rational for the mediocre employees and irrational for the top performers. The problem is everyone thinks they're a top performer, but most people are, by definition, average.

I think there are a lot of people who — yeah, sure, every job can be better. We're not living in a utopia of work. But I'm going to guess a vast majority of people actually are okay with their current job. It would be nice to work somewhere nicer, or it'd be nice if they had a less sucky boss, but at the end of the day, they probably like their coworkers. They probably like what they do, and their job is probably not going anywhere, at least in the near term.

I think what we're seeing is the mediocre employees, where this is getting fear — I was able to fly under the radar, now I'm not. And I could be part of the problem. But I think if we're talking to the extremes on both ends, then those are problems. In the middle of the pack, if you like what you do, just stay where you are. If you really are a top performer, go for the job. If you're truly a top performer and not a "I think I'm a top performer but I'm really average," you will always have a job. And if you're mediocre with a desire to be a top performer, this is your opportunity to train yourself up.

HOST 2: I like this. Job hugging makes perfect sense for the 70% of people that are average, and makes absolutely no sense for the 20% of people that are best in breed, best in class. The problem is that fear is so contagious that a lot of people with options act like they don't have them. So we're seeing a lot of high-potential, top 20% people put themselves in performance cages that they don't belong in.

So it becomes a real question around self-awareness. Look, if you're really a top 10, top 20% performer, you've got options. You should go pursue the top dollar, because you're worth it. And if you're not one of those, you should just stay where you are, because you don't want to go out into the open market — it's a brutal place. And if you are one of those top 10, top 20, maybe top 25%, look, you can make it. There's volatility there, there's a lot of risk, but a lot of reward. And if that's not the game you want to play, if that's not your particular flavor of brandy, then stay where you are, because it's very easy to lose more than you gain in that situation.

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[SEGMENT 7 — MONDAY MORNING FIX AND THE LAST WORD]

HOST 1: So let's get close to landing the plane here. I want to do a little bit of forward looking.

of: 2026

Spicy take. We're going to see the Great Resignation 2.0. Expect this. It's going to happen. And it's not going to be the Great Resignation 2.0. It's going to be the Great Revenge, because those that hugged in fear are going to take vengeance. Workers aren't just going to leave. They're going to burn bridges on their way out. Two years of resentment doesn't just disappear.

real culture will dominate in: 2027

gnificantly impacted by AI by: 2030

ng. It's that we're solving a: 2025

HOST 2: Yeah, we talked about it again in the previous episode — how we still have people in positions of power that are using legacy thinking. And when that domino falls, it's going to be a wave.

eir Blockbuster membership in: 2007

I think the most important thing to understand about job hugging is that it's not about the job. It's about power and fear and what happens when the system falls apart. Job hugging is a very rational response to an irrational market. But rational doesn't mean that it's optimal or that it's good for everybody in the equation.

hecks they'll have to cash in: 2026

HOST 1: Good.

HOST 2: We went from "quit your job and follow your passion" to "shut up and be grateful you have a job."

HOST 1: Yes. The real question is, are you job hugging right now? And more importantly, what's your plan for when the music stops?

HOST 2: So good. I would say that maybe goes back to the whole question of why are you in the workplace in the first place. What's your passion? What's the difference you want to make in the world? And how are you pursuing that? Because whether that's working for a Fortune 500 or a startup or your own thing, I think passion and purpose are going to become the distinguishing factor in the workforce going forward.

ned this talking about how in: 2021

[END OF EPISODE]